A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
