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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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